Bond Yields Are Surging Again — The Math Just Changed for Everyone

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Издатель
The 10-year Treasury closed at 4.79% on September 1, 2026 — its highest since January 2025. That number isn't just a bond yield. It's the benchmark price for time, inflation risk, and opportunity cost across the entire U.S. financial system.

When it moves, mortgages reprice. Bond funds mark down. Stock valuations face a higher hurdle. Savers finally get paid. And the government's borrowing math shifts.

In this breakdown, we walk through exactly what changed and what it means for your money — using real numbers from official sources, not headlines.

We cover:

Why the Fed does NOT set the 10-year yield
The five forces driving the selloff: inflation, Fed repricing, Treasury supply, term premium, and global bond pressure
Real mortgage math on a $415,000 loan at 5.50% vs. 6.66%
Why "safe" bond funds fall when yields rise — and how duration actually works
The discount-rate mechanic that hits long-duration stocks hardest
Why higher starting yields may improve long-term bond returns

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CHAPTERS
0:00 The number nobody watches
0:13 What just moved
2:30 Why yields are surging
5:30 The Fed and the bond market aren't the same thing
7:45 The mortgage math just changed
10:15 Why "safe" bond funds can fall
12:45 The new math for stocks
15:15 Savers are getting paid
16:45 Retirement portfolios: the hidden trade-off
18:10 The government's refinancing problem
19:00 What to watch next
19:40 Final verdict

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SOURCES: U.S. Department of the Treasury (Daily Par Yield Curve), Federal Reserve (FOMC statement, July 29, 2026), Freddie Mac PMMS (August 27, 2026), Treasury FiscalData, CME FedWatch, Reuters.

Data as of September 2, 2026. Market-implied probabilities and yields change daily.

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